Archive for May, 2010

Forgive the personal indulgence, but my wife Kelly gave birth to Jemima yesterday morning - the day of the General Election.
We joked about calling her Tory after 13 hours of labour; or rather I joked, being a bloke who only had to put up with the politics of Labour, not go through it.
The whole of poor Jemima’s life to date has been taken up with watching the General Election. She largely kept her counsel, apart from being sick when Harriet Harman opened her mouth. It would not surprise me if her first word is ‘coalition’ rather than ‘Peppa Pig.’
The best moment of the BBC coverage was when we were asked to watch ‘Nick Clegg’s car’ only for the cameras to lose it in the tunnel. “Sorry Jack, we’ve lost him,” said Chloe at CTU to Jack Bauer in 24 style. Did the Liberal Democrat leader switch cars from Labour to the Tories in the tunnel?
I haven’t told Jemima the country will probably be in debt for her entire lifetime, but for the moment it is us, not her, who have to worry.
As we watch the political confusion and horse-trading play out, with instant analysis from pundits and politicians who can barely keep their eyes open, every industry tries to interpret what a Hung Parliament means for business.
Estate agents Knight Frank - I doubt many of their staff voted anything other than Conservative - came up with quick, well-reasoned, arguments. The political uncertainly will undoubtedly slow down the traditionally strong spring house hunting season. If David Cameron gets a sufficient degree of power, then, says Knight Frank, he will go for public sector spending cuts, over tax rises. This could be good news for the pound in the short-term, if it looks like the deficit is being properly addressed. But rising unemployment from job cuts and the impact of pay freezes will put downward pressure on the housing market.
So will it be tough Conservative legislation, or fudged ‘Clegislation’, as part of some hastily concocted Tory-Lib Dem pact? Of course if there is not a grip on debt fast, then we could have higher inflation, higher interest rates and mortgage arrears and defaults.
Those tweedy, sober people at Knight Frank don’t usually do alarmist, but one line in their analysis caught my eye as they talked about how public sector job losses would provoke ‘a wave of strikes.’
They are probably right, but I don’t see a summer of discontent until England go out of the World Cup on penalties. Perhaps England could form a coalition football team made up of Brazilians, Spaniards, Lionel Messi and Wayne Rooney.

Rupert Bates is editorial director of www.whathouse.co.uk. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/rupertbates.

Tweet This Post